Wednesday, December 1

2019-Climate Change and Paris Agreement Long-term Growth Strategy Outlook — A year in which important international conferences are being asked for the role of Japan (Kazuo Matsushita / Professor Emeritus of Kyoto University, Co-Chair of T20 Climate Change and Environmental Task Force, (Public interest) ) Senior Fellow, Global Environmental Strategy Research Institute)

Mr. Kazuo Matsushita
Mr. Kazuo Matsushita

Introduction

The kanji that symbolizes 2018 was “disaster.” As this shows, last year was a year of frequent disasters. It is as if the adverse effects of climate change have become apparent and abnormal weather has become commonplace. If climate change measures are not taken promptly in the future, the damage will increase further, and the risk of shaking social stability and economic activities will increase due to the effects of health, food, and ecosystems.

Under these circumstances, the 24th Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Framework Convention (COP24) was held in Poland last December. Although negotiations at COP24 were difficult, the Paris Rulebook (Paris Agreement Implementation Guidelines), which is the implementation rule of the Paris Agreement, was adopted, and it has finally entered the stage where full-scale implementation is required. (Note 1)

The Paris Agreement Implementation Guidelines provide flexibility for developing countries, with the participation of all countries, and each country provides information related to the National Commitment (NDC) on climate change policy and mutually confirms it. , It is a mechanism to raise the action. Developed countries are obliged to carry out funding-related rules, and the format of reports based on agreements and detailed rules for utilizing market mechanisms are under continuous consideration.

At COP24, “improvement of ambition” was repeatedly emphasized. “Ambition” means the political will to raise the level of climate change countermeasures. The current efforts of each country are overwhelmingly inadequate to achieve the goals of the Paris Agreement, and the level of global climate change countermeasures needs to be dramatically improved to fill the gap. In a speech at COP24, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guteres said, “The priorities are field, field, field, field, and field.”

In closing the gap, the most important thing to focus on is the realization of decarburization, especially decarburization. The number of countries / regions that are already decarburizing is increasing (described later). Japan will inevitably reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 80% by 2050, and shift its social, economic, and energy systems toward decarbonization.

One act of COP24 that adopted the implementation rules of the Paris Agreement (December 15) (Provided by COP24 Secretariat)
One act of COP24 that adopted the implementation rules of the Paris Agreement (December 15) (Provided by COP24 Secretariat)
The number of hot days around the world. The broken line graph shows that it is on an increasing trend over the long term (provided by the US Marine and Atmospheric Administration).
The number of hot days around the world. The broken line graph shows that it is on an increasing trend over the long term (provided by the US Marine and Atmospheric Administration).

1. 2019 is full of international conferences related to climate change

Many international conferences on the global environment, especially climate change, are scheduled for 2019.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) General Assembly will be held in Kyoto from May 6th to 13th. The UN Secretary-General’s initiative will also host the United Nations Climate Change Summit in New York on September 23, and the 25th Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Framework Convention (COP25) in Chile in November.

On June 28th and 29th, the first 20 countries / regions (G20) summit will be held in Japan (Osaka). The main agenda of the G20 is economics and finance, but climate change and marine plastic pollution are also on the agenda. By G20, the Japanese government has decided to put together a “Long-term Growth Strategy for the Paris Agreement,” which is required to be formulated under the Paris Agreement. In connection with the G20, the Energy and Environment Ministerial Conference will be held in Karuizawa on June 15th and 16th. In addition, in order to provide policy input to the G20, a summit (T20 summit) by the “T20 (think tank 20)”, which is a coalition of think tanks from G20 countries, is scheduled to be held in Tokyo in May.

With the U.S. Trump administration continuing its negative policy on climate change, while the leadership of the European Union (EU), which has led international climate change countermeasures, especially Germany, France, and the United Kingdom, is also bleak. It will be a year when the role of Japan, which will be the first G20 presidency, will be re-questioned as to how it can tackle urgent global environmental issues.

UN Secretary-General Antonio Guteres (Courtesy of COP24 Secretariat) addressing the urgent need for global warming countermeasures at COP24
UN Secretary-General Antonio Guteres (Courtesy of COP24 Secretariat) giving a speech at COP24 calling for urgent measures against global warming

2.A new global economic and social vision set forth by the Paris Agreement and Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs)

The Paris Agreement (Note 2) adopted at the 21st Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Climate Change Framework Convention (COP21, December 2015) sets out long-term goals and frameworks for the world to move toward a carbon-free society.

The Paris Agreement sets ambitious long-term goals for global climate change control and gives a clear message to move away from fossil fuels. We have also established a framework that includes the participation of all developing countries while calling on developed countries to take the initiative. The Paris Agreement aims to keep the global average temperature rise well below 2 degrees Celsius and even 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to before the Industrial Revolution. For this reason, in the latter half of this century, we have set a goal of “net zero emissions” that offsets the world’s anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions with anthropogenic absorption. This is the goal of virtually zero greenhouse gas emissions from human activities, and a drastic shift in the economy and society to a defossil fuel civilization is required. The Paris Agreement means the beginning of the end of a fossil-fuel-dependent civilization.

On the other hand, the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) (Note 3) adopted at the United Nations General Assembly in September 2015 have 17 goals (Fig. 3) that call for an integrated response to the three aspects of economic development, social inclusion, and environmental conservation. It consists of 1) and 169 targets. The SDGs call for efforts to put an end to poverty, combat inequality, and address environmental issues such as climate change, with a central concept of “no one left behind.” The SDGs call on all nations to act within the boundaries of the global system, pursuing improvements in people’s livelihoods. The premise is that while promoting economic development to end poverty and hunger, while addressing a wide range of social needs to secure basic human rights such as education, health, social protection and employment opportunities, climate change It is recognized that a strategy for countermeasures and environmental protection is necessary.

What is the new world economic and social vision of the SDGs and the Paris Agreement?

British economist Kate Lawers said that between the “improvement of the foundation of society” from the perspective of basic human rights indicated by the SDGs and the “boundary of the earth system” (Note 4) presented by Rockstrom, donuts. There is a type of spatial area, which is shown as “a spatial area that is environmentally safe for humankind and socially fair from the perspective of basic human rights” (Note 5) (Fig. 2). By the way, according to Rockstrom et al., They have already crossed the boundaries of three of the eight earth system boundaries they have set: climate change, nitrogen and phosphorus circulation, and loss of biodiversity.

The new vision of the SDGs and the Paris Agreement puts an end to poverty, keeps the use of natural resources sustainable and environmentally, within the boundaries of social infrastructure based on basic human rights and the global system. It can be defined as a society in which all people on the earth can sustainably improve their well being without exception in a socially fair space area from the viewpoint of safe and basic human rights.

17 goals of SDGs (provided by the United Nations Public Relations Center)
Figure 1 17 goals of SDGs (provided by the United Nations Public Relations Center)
Figure 2 Socially fair spatial areas for humankind from the perspective of environmentally safe and basic human rights (Source: World Watch Institute (2016),
Figure 2 Socially fair spatial areas for humankind from the perspective of environmentally safe and basic human rights (Source: World Watch Institute (2016), “White Paper on Earth 2013-14”, World Watch Japan, (From page 29)

3. 3. What does “IPCC 1.5 degree special report” mean?

In October last year, the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) published a special report (Note 6) entitled “1.5 ° C Global Warming”, which raised temperatures by only 0.5 ° C, 2 ° C and 1.5 ° C. He warned that the impact of warming would be significantly different.

For example, the number of people hit by heat waves will increase by about 1.7 billion if it is 2 degrees compared to the increase of 1.5 degrees. In addition, the disappearance of species will progress at once. A 1.5 degree rise halves the seed habitat of 6% of insects, 4% of vertebrates and 8% of plants, but a 2 degree rise doubles that of vertebrates and plants and 3 of insects. It is expected to double. According to the report, if global warming progresses at the current pace, it is likely that the average global temperature will rise by 1.5 degrees in 2030 compared to before the industrial revolution (see Table 1).

The impact of warming is large even at a rise of 1.5 degrees Celsius, but it is found to be even more serious at 2 degrees Celsius, so the report argues that it is necessary to control it below 1.5 degrees Celsius. And while it is still possible to stop warming to 1.5 degrees Celsius, it requires unprecedented change in all sectors of society. And by 2030 CO2Emissions will be halved and net zero emissions will be needed by 2050. The Paris Agreement presupposes a “twice target” of lowering the world average temperature rise to well below two degrees compared to before the industrial revolution, and CO2By 50 years, it will reduce emissions by 40% to 70% compared to 10 years, and the realization of virtually zero will be achieved in the latter half of this century (2050 to 2100). Therefore, in order to keep it below 1.5 degrees, CO2A considerable advance in reduction is required.

Achieving the 1.5 degree target requires unprecedented change in all sectors of society, especially in areas such as land use, energy, industry, construction, transportation and cities. Specifically, we will stop the destruction of forests, plant billions of trees, dramatically reduce the use of fossil fuels, phase out the use of coal by 2050, and eliminate wind and solar power generation. Increase, invest in sustainable agriculture, consider the latest technologies, and more.

In the process of transition to a carbon-free society, it is important to consider synergistic effects with goals other than climate control, and sustainable development goals (SDGs) that consider ethics and equity such as eradication of poverty and reduction of health damage. ) Will lead to a better realization of a decarbonized society.

Source: Created by WWF Japan from IPCC SR1 SPM1.5 & Chapter3
Source: Created by WWF Japan from IPCC SR1 SPM1.5 & Chapter3
Changes in carbon dioxide (CO <sub> 2 </ sub>) emissions from global energy consumption from 2000 to 2017 (provided by the International Energy Agency)” width=”360″ height=”177″ title=”blog_id_434_order_8″ src=”http://img.brunofcvn.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/blog_id_434_order_8.jpg” src-webp=”http://img.brunofcvn.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/blog_id_434_order_8.jpg.webp” class=”ewww_webp_lazy_load”><noscript><img src=IPCC 1.5 degree special report cover (provided by IPCC)
IPCC 1.5 degree special report cover (provided by IPCC)

Four.Movement to decarbonized economy that has already begun

Under the Paris Agreement, a radical shift to a carbon-free society has already begun. Major countries in the world are trying to realize economic development by taking advantage of climate change countermeasures by promoting thorough energy saving and significant expansion of renewable energy. Leading companies see climate change as a business risk as well as a business opportunity and are taking the lead.

In Europe, there is a swell of expulsion of gasoline and diesel vehicles. In July 2017, France and the United Kingdom decided to ban the sale of gasoline and diesel vehicles by 2040. Regulations will be introduced in China from 2019 to switch to new energy vehicles.

The explosive spread of renewable energy and the decline in prices continue. From the end of 2005 to the end of 2017, the amount of wind power generation installed in the world increased about 9 times (from 59 gigawatt > to 539 GW), and the amount of solar power generation introduced increased about 79 times (from 5.1 GW to 402 GW). (Note 7)

New decarbonization business models are also expanding around the world. The number of companies (RE100) (Note 8) that have declared that they aim to cover their business operations with 100% renewable energy is 159 companies worldwide, including IKEA (Sweden) and Bloomberg (USA), and 13 companies in Japan (1) 13 Japanese participating companies: Ricoh, Sekisui House, Askul, Daiwa House Industry, Watami, Aeon, Jonan Credit Bank, Marui Group, Fujitsu, Envipro Holdings, Sony, Fuyo Sogo Lease, Corp Sapporo) (January 2019) As of 7th). Furthermore, there are movements to encourage not only the company but also its suppliers and customers to switch to renewable energy.

Scientifically based CO2The efforts of the “Science Based Targets Initiative (SBT Initiative) (Note 9)”, an international initiative to promote reduction targets, are also expanding. It encourages companies to set reduction targets that are consistent with scientific knowledge in order to keep the global average temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius. As of January 7, 2019, 163 companies have been certified as having goals consistent with scientific knowledge (twice in line with goals), and 507 including committed companies. Representative Japanese companies that are members of SBT include Daiichi Sankyo, Komatsu Seisakusho, Konica Minolta, Ricoh, and Sony. By joining SBT, it is expected to have the effects of promoting innovation, reducing regulatory uncertainty, securing the trust of investors and gaining more trust, and improving profitability and competitiveness. NS.

The movement toward coal-free thermal power is also expanding.

The members of the Powering Past Coal Alliance (PPCA) (Note 10), which was established at COP23 (December 2017), are 80 countries / regions from 27 countries / regions / governments (as of COP23) at that time. It is expanding to governments and companies. The governments participating in this alliance are aiming for an early phase-out of existing coal (stopping construction of new coal until carbon recovery and storage (CCS) guidance), and companies will procure power sources other than coal. , Financial institutions restrict lending to charcoal. In addition, power companies in 26 of the 28 EU member states have signed agreements promising that coal-fired power plants will not be built after 2020. (Table 2) is an example of a country that has announced the year of decarburization.

(Table 2) Examples of countries that have announced the year of decarburization
(Table 2) Examples of countries that have announced the year of coal-free thermal power
Image of solar power generation in the city (provided by the International Renewable Energy Organization << IRENA >> / IRENA Report)” width=”360″ height=”238″ title=”blog_id_434_order_11″ src=”http://img.brunofcvn.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/blog_id_434_order_11.jpg” src-webp=”http://img.brunofcvn.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/08/blog_id_434_order_11.jpg.webp” class=”ewww_webp_lazy_load”><noscript><img src=Impact of climate change in Japan (Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Meteorological Agency, Fire Service Agency, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Ministry of the Environment)
Impact of climate change in Japan (Source: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries, Meteorological Agency, Fire Service Agency, National Institute of Infectious Diseases, Ministry of the Environment)

6. Conclusion

In the first place, the purpose of the economy (“Keisei Saimin” in Chinese classics) is not the material growth itself, that is, the quantitative expansion of production and consumption itself, but it brings prosperity to us and future generations and enables a better life. To do. And that can only be achieved within the limits of the natural activities of the planet Earth, which is limited. Short-sighted economic policies aimed at short-term corporate profits and growing demand impair the sustainability of the long-term environment as well as the long-term and sound development of the economy.

The manifestation of the effects of climate change is a major obstacle to “sustainable development.” Moreover, economic development and climate change countermeasures are not in conflict. From an ethical standpoint that takes into account future generations, the cost of mitigating climate change is less than the cost of doing nothing, and the later the action, the greater the cost. do.

Today, we reaffirm the original purpose of “sustainable development”, which is to promote the sustainable maintenance and development of posterity, within the constraints of the sustainability of the global society and the environment. There is a need for realistic policy design and implementation of the transition to. Of course, the current socio-economic system has a strong inertia, and the barrier of vested interests that hinders change is strong.

However, given that the negative effects of climate change can take centuries to recover and are often irreversible, we must now begin to work towards a truly sustainable future.

(note)

  1. COP24 results
  2. Paris Agreement
  3. SDGs
  4. Earth system boundaries
  5. Kate Raworth “A Safe and Just Place for Humanity” (Oxfam 2012)
  6. IPCC 1.5 degree special report
  7. “ Renewable Energy World White Paper 2018”, pp38,42,
  8. RE100
  9. SBT Initiative
  10. Coal Exclusion Alliance
  11. Paris Agreement Long-term Growth Strategy Roundtable
  12. Recommendations for a long-term strategy based on Japan’s Paris Agreement
Mr. Kazuo Matsushita
Mr. Kazuo Matsushita (Kazuo Matsushita)

Profile of Mr. Kazuo MatsushitaProfessor Emeritus of Kyoto University, Co-Chair of “T20 Climate Change and Environmental Task Force”, Senior Fellow of Global Environmental Strategy Research Institute (IGES), and Examiner of Opposition to Environmental Guidelines of International Cooperation Organization (JICA). After joining the Environment Agency in 1972, he has served as the Chief of the Air Control Section and the Chief of the Environmental Conservation Measures Section. Worked for the OECD Environment Bureau and the United Nations Earth Summit (UNCED) Secretariat (Senior Environmental Planning Officer). From 2001 to 2013, Professor at the Graduate School of Global Environmental Studies, Kyoto University (Global Environmental Policy Theory). He has long been involved in environmental administration, especially global environment and international cooperation, and participated in negotiations on the United Nations Climate Change Framework Convention and the Kyoto Protocol. Researches sustainable development theory, environmental governance theory, climate change policy, biodiversity policy, regional environmental policy, etc. His major books include “Opening the Way for East-Asia Collaboration: Decarbonization, Energy, and Food” (2017), “The idea that it is better to change yourself” (15 years), “Journey to Global Environmental Studies” (2011), “Recommendation of Environmental Policy Studies” (2007), “Environmental Governance Theory” (2007), “Environmental Governance” (Role of Citizens, Companies, Local Governments, Governments) (2002), “Environmental Politics” “Introduction” (2000), translated by RE Sonia / RA Megantsk, “Global Environmental Governance Encyclopedia” (18), Robert Watson “Proposals for Environment and Development” (15), Lester R. Brown “Earth” White paper “etc.